One year ago today: February 3, 2015, meh.
Five years ago today: February 3, 2011, see the bumper?
Nine years ago today: February 3, 2007, Bayside, Florida.
Random years ago today: February 3, 2014, on “required fields”.
(what to put in there.)
MORNING
Let’s talk money and economics. There’s little unusual about predictions of doom. But it is comparatively rare that all the experts say the same thing at once—that 2016 is headed for another recession like 2008. Personally, I’ve been saying that all along. And I hope it does happen. Why? Because not enough people learned in 2008 that you cannot borrow your way to riches. A recession just now will hurt nobody but the credit junkies.
To me, recession means falling house prices. Don’t hand me that crap that we can’t let people lose their houses. If they can’t pay for it, then it isn’t their house. Start with the worst offenders and hit them hard. Real "family men" don't live in million dollar houses when they have a trailer park job. I did not care for the way the government bailed these irresponsible asses out with taxpayer money. In that vein, I view 2016 is a continuation of 2008 but this time the government is out of options. They’ve dodged the bullet too many times.
My guess is that about half the “value” in America, particularly the stock market, is all hullabaloo. The fifth generation swindlers on Wall Street know precisely how to squeeze real dollars out of the market in return for fake promises and phony financial statements. There are about 300 Enrons pending should anyone care to audit the books. And it was all taken away from the former American middle class.
This is not conspiracy propaganda, you can look it up yourself. I know that if I was born one of the elite, I would do the same. Buy the US government, install forty years of liberals, label all opposition as racist, and take over while they bickered between themselves. One common thread of the lower classes is they have a one-generation perspective on life. They forget they’ve been taken before.
No matter how you slice it, the USA is off balance. The American people are not inherently bad, but the world sees them as the voters and taxpayers who support the leaders who are outright evil. They are the ones bombing and spying and destabilizing, not the $100,000 a year executive who lost his job and now hangs on as a mall cop. Trump is the personification of people’s frustrations with how things have been going, but before [Trump came along] the threat of media exposure means they didn’t dare criticize the system. Now they dare.
Myself, I would like to see deflation. Falling prices. I’ve covered this before but I’ll remind everyone who says prices going up is bad for those on fixed incomes. Then falling prices must therefore be good for the same people. The people not on fixed incomes, it seems, have their own set of separate problems. The first prices to fall are generally housing. Yes, that would be nice.
The record is 183 miles, gulp.
NOON
See this swank picture of the Goldwing “dashboard”. I may be seeing that a bit soon. The cold snap is over and the camper is nearly done. And JZ is not able to take the trip that was originally planned for the 20th of last month. So, time to get the winter dust off the sidecar. Nothing much, but we do need a day out of town to keep spirits up. The extra “mirror” is not for viewing, it is the mount for a GPS unit. The card in the windscreen is the last words of R. Ingersoll, also called the atheist’s prayer. “God, if there is a God, save my soul if I have a soul.”
JZ did make it over this morning without even time for a coffee. We had some transactions to complete and he was back to Miami before 11:00AM. That cancels the possibility of a trip to the interior this week. Unless I fire up the sidecar, and I’ll make that decision before Friday morning. JZ has one of the worst habits when it comes to paperwork. He doesn’t read it. Me, I read the phone bill, the grocery receipts, and of course the bank statements. That is what they are for. I can tell you to the penny what I spent on entertainment last month. In fact, I will tell you. $274 even.
You know why to read the paperwork? Because that is how you make informed decisions. Since the bakery closed, my coffee budget tripled. Unless I find a replacement, it is coffee at home or down to three times a week at the café. Simple as that. The mistake most people make who don’t read the statements is a double-whammy, They can save money in spurts, but inevitably within 90 days something will come up because they usually save by neglecting something.
After the first bite, well, you know. Trying to save money without keeping records is a non-starter. It’s a process that you cannot win. And I know stubborn people who have remained poor throughout their entire lives because they won’t to the homework. I’ve heard some say reconciling your bank account is “sissy”. The problem is, none of those sort ever get to a prominent enough position that anybody will believe they did it any other way.
NIGHT
This is a picture of shoe polish. “Senior” shoe polish, at that. I don’t have any better photos. Because my pal and I were supposed to go to Winter Haven today and he canceled out at the last minute. What a turkey. Now I'm stuck with a day where the most exciting event is a can of Senior shoe polish. Don't that beat hell?
This time around, it looks like again everybody is holding their breath. Only the worst places that nobody wants are still for sale. As in 2008, there appears to be little to lose by waiting—as long as I am getting ahead faster than house prices are rising. I was trapped by that back in the 80s. I could only save $500 per month while house prices were going up $1,000 in the same stretch. Who remembers that era? The middle class were setting themselves up for the plucking, all of them conned into thinking a house was the ultimate store of value.
In fact, an expensive house is a stone around your neck. One of the reasons before WWII that only the rich owned houses was because they were aware of the true costs of ownershop. That’s your trivia. A hundred years ago, very few ordinary citizens owned houses. Most people rented rooms. Boarding houses were common. It was the “American Dream” to own your own house that attracted people toward mortgages after the war. But in fact, a house with a mortgage is just a fat juicy target for the tax man.
It might be argued that millions of middle-class types did successfully pay off their mortgages and retire in comfort. Did they now? To spend a lifetime working to pay off debt is hardly what any sane person would consider a triumph. And by retirement, do you mean winding up a noisy old fart at the Panera for the free refills? The happy seniors I know don’t own houses, but they do own motorcycles and go wherever they please whenever they please.
ADDENDUM
Who is paying attention to silver? I am. Like a hawk. I wouldn’t make a killing, but then, I only have to outrun the bear. Silver prices are totally contrived with no basis in supply or demand. Any one of these spikes (see today’s graph) could signal the onset of a surge, because prices have been kept artificially low for years. The game plan since 2011/12 is to bleed out the small speculators who miss other opportunities if they tie too much up in metals, so they sell at a loss. I have no such pressures. I sit back and watch.
It is directly tied to my quest for a place to live away from the Florida east coast. The Atlantic seaboard has been going downhill for decades as the tourist economy falters. This has me looking at the interior, and dozens of times per week I find suitable properties that are too expensive. At the same time, I know exactly what the average spread in those prices happens to be.
That is, I know to the penny how much cash I would need to close the gap between what I have and what I want. I’m not stating any amounts, but I will say one does not sell out the entire motherlode at once while prices are rising. I know how much to hold back in reserve. Let’s just say if prices ever leap above $60 per ounce, the ground rules completely change. At $100, I’m whistling Dixie, and it is a catchy tune.
The way I see it, the situation now is similar to 2008, except silver had not been kept artificially low of several years up to that point. The base underlying value of real silver is about $160 per ounce right now, but the upside is reputedly $1,000 per ounce. It would require a currency collapse for that to transpire. Let’s not rule that out.
To those who say metals can never skyrocket, I counter that they are the only segment of the global market that has absolutely any chance of a massive upside. My money is not on Caterpillar or Coca-Cola. I know energy will explode on the rebound, but you can’t own energy like you can a bar of gold, nor can you bury enough of it in your back yard to weather the approaching crisis.
Last Laugh
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