Here’s the con laundry. Don’t I mean coin laundry? Naw, look close. They know how much dryer time you get for a quarter. I stopped by Panera at 7:00 AM (a half hour after opening time) and no sign of Pete. An hour later, after shopping for essentials, still no Pete. I had a bagel and waited more, using the time to calculate that PVC fittings fit into the joint sockets 11/16ths of an inch. That’s on each end, probably designed so genius plumbers could to the reckoning in their heads. Right. I cut some pieces in standard sizes using the thin walled “Charlotte” piping.
JZ has a birthday this week, we were going to take him to Tony Roma’s, but I had to cancel out. Just can’t afford it, last time I was at Roma’s was an Xmas party in 1985 and it cost me $19.00. Come to think of it, I know somebody from Calgary, Alberta, who’s birthday is also this week. Bob Lineham, that’s the guy. His parents owned all the land around Midnapore, a hamlet that got surrounded by the city. They were selling it by the square inch last I heard. Bob married a gal called Linda, had four kids, became a school teacher. Last I heard means about four years ago.
Next came a call from Ray-B. Like myself, he is certain the pent up inflation of the past ten years will begin a reign of terror, but is not sure how to react to it. The Internet is suffocating with predictions for tomorrow at the latest. In reality, time will creep along and those with any items of real value (meaning no cash, certificates of investment, or mortgaged real estate) will be sitting pretty. So will those with any trade in demand, as opposed to the old skill sets of the people retiring now. I explained this type of investment demands several layers of understanding at once, so it is not for everybody.This demands closer inspection. Cash will inflate, but it is not easily recognized that certificates are really loans you gave to others. Their performance is historically not tied to intelligence, but a surging market. Time and again huge houses fail when the true underlying lack of talent is revealed. Nobody out there in the traditional market is beating the system any more. Mortgaged real estate will be unique, as 85 million people thought home equity was their lifetime “store of value”, and it has already fallen 30% nationwide.
It is 19 days until the crunch begins. It won’t be big at first, as the US economy can absorb 10,000 casualties per day for quite a while. We are watching for the domino effect. First one old couple discovers their $800,000 dream home is now being taxed as such, and they voted in the taxman like the good citizens they were. Even going back to work at jobs they used to sneer at won’t pay such taxes. They will eventually dump the house. That first domino.
I also predict what happens in Ft. Lauderdale will lead the way, so keep an eye on the locality. Only 23 Broward properties sold last week, six of them short sales. Let me clarify what a short sale is amid this atmosphere of fuddled thinking by people who only think they know. Say a house is mortgaged for $300,000 but is only saleable at $250,000. The bank and the owner can agree to sell it for the lower price if the bank agrees to take the $50,000 loss. Since it costs more to foreclose, the bank is not doing you any favors by negotiating. They lose $50k, the big-talking ex-homeowner loses a lifetime of mortgage payments and is now worth diddley-squat, home-equity-wise. Love those self-created hyphenated words, I do.
And it serves them right. I got sick and tired of their bragging back in my twenties. Glory to the person who first said, “Let them spend cake.”
[Author's note 2016-01-18: the above prediction was based on a demographic formula that the baby boomers would begin retiring at 10,000 per day, a calculation based on nine months after the soldiers began returning from WWII. The assumption was that the banks would have to obey the laws limiting their quantity and total value of repossessed housing. Thus, if I had been right, banks would have been forced to place 110,000 houses on the market at one in Broward County alone. I could have picked up oceanfront property for $50,00, which is about what it is worth. I was unaware the banks did not have to obey the law. Five years later, those houses are still kept off the market.]
Some point to the 1930s inflation, where the German banks were paid off with useless currency. But back then, the prevailing wages kept pace with inflation and workers were taking home wheelbarrows full of cash. That will not happen this time, in fact the recession has lasted as long as the depression in Germany and there is no sign of things getting better. Very few jobs pay a living wage now. You wait until millions of seniors discover they can’t live on their pensions and try to re-enter the workplace. Milk already costs more than gasoline.
Much more fun is the fact Ray-B caught me at morning coffee over at Burger King. The PVC from last day has taken form, and here is a sneak preview at the X-ray machine. Imagine taking a look through the two “eyepieces”, which are nothing but hollow tubes. See the gap between the tubes? Anything opaque inserted in there will block the line of sight. Or will it? Those with long memories or time to go back far enough [in this blog] will recognize this is merely a plastic version of the wooden model presented years ago and works on the same principle. I’ll see if my cheap camera can photograph the effect, which I assure you is not trick photography but a real picture. You will really be able to see what is not there, and you are welcome to look at it on your own. Shown here is the basic non-working model awaiting a few modifications to make it function.
Also mentioned was the consensus that the Hippie is the single person most responsible for the troubles on the Craigslist musician’s room. I don’t need to look to see his rambling, misspelled lashings out at the system that just will not let him get away with breaking the law. He is probably the only person on that board with an anti-fan list. I’ll take a look tomorrow afternoon to see who he is mean-mouthing now.
It took all day, but I’ve repaired the light bulb problem on the cycle. I had to drive up to Ft. Lauderdale. One gets used to spending a lot of wasted time, this town is not efficient and if you try to be, it will cost you. Florida teaches efficient people a hard lesson in how to do business. I managed to lose a speedometer cable on the way. It was loose and couldn’t be tightened; now it is gone. But I have the speakers and mouse pads for the cycle shop and I’ll be up there soon as I can be in the morning.
Meanwhile I made a big fish stew with onions and tomatoes on the propane stove, a batch big enough to stay home all evening and calculate the best way to approach the immediate future which holds all the telltale signs of disaster if people don’t smarten up and do the right thing. My real estate lawyer is amazed I’m still looking for an amicable solution. I’m amazed that I’ve found a substitute for porridge in the morning. Betty Crocker sweet potatoes, the instant mixture. Mid-calorie and no hot spices.
[Author's note 2016-01-18: I later dropped all Betty Crocker products from my diet due to their use of genetically modified ingredients. Please don't eat poison.]
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