September 30, 2015

Yesteryear
One year ago today: September 30, 2014, feminists, Ethiopians, and hobos.
Five years ago today: September 30, 2010, 18+ hour talkathon.
Six years ago today: September 30, 2009, on middle management.

MORNING
           Not much today, but I like to record such times. You know, so other people can compare their “not much” days to what mine are like. Flu or not, I had to get out there and chase around. Stick around or come back later to see if I found any silver. Ah, I’ll bet some of you thought all you have to do is zip downtown and buy some. Nope, and delivery time on Eagles is up to six weeks. Plenty of time for things to go wrong. I'll say it again, do not buy anything except raw silver bullion in small bars. Do not buy coins unless there is nothing else.

           Is there a photo? Yes, it should show the bicycle of the homeless guy engineer. There really isn't such a thing as homeless in Florida in that you get at least $730 per month cash and $288 in food stamps for the asking. True, there are cases that slip through those cracks, but overall they are the ones that no amount of help would make any difference. This guy has breakfast in the cafe every morning and has the know-how to make all these sails work via pulleys and wires. The trick is that the system draws no distinction between people who sincerely cannot work and those who act crazy enough to make themselves unemployable.

           You may notice a time lag on the Yesteryear links. Sorry, but those links often take longer to set up than to write the blog. And they cannot be automated, each link has to laboriously cut and pasted. Our hipster programmers are more busy chasing after the next killer app than fixing what is broken. Also, photos. As I mentioned, this blog requires some 255 photos per month. You may only see 60, but they are hand-picked. This is also the oldest blog that contains a consistent variety of "real" photos that covers a reasonable spread of topics. In other words, it is not all cat picture and the majority of content is not photo-shopped.
           True, this blog was not the first to use digital photos, but I latched onto the technology the instant it became affordable. For years, I had tinkered with the idea of setting up a darkroom, but put that idea on hold when I saw my first digital photos. I knew then that the Kodak monopoly was kaput and it revolutionized this blog. If you see the [photo delay] marker once in a while, be patient. There has to be an entire behind the scenes operation to keep a steady supply of the photos in such a timely fashion. I have two boxloads of unscanned regular photos I may publish after I turn 65, when hopefully I'll have time to dig into the hand-written archives.
           This morning was clear, so we held the club meeting at the bakery, where somehow we managed to drink an average of four cups of coffee each. We were there until past noon. The fact is, we have not come up with a single sellable idea since day one. I gave a five minute lecture on how this was normal. Compare to others, compare the sheer volume of ideas over the past four years. Thousands. And that beats most people’s lifetime output.
           Tell you what, here is a million-dollar idea, free. Invent a socket for LEDs. That’s correct, invent something that makes an LED as easy to replace as a light bulb. Go back and read about my wagon wiring last day. To replace an LED, you essentially need a soldering iron. And LED signs are expensive for that. And make sure you design it so it the LED cannot be put in backwards and so it fits on a standard breadboard. No, not those lame “holder sockets” or the G4 style led lamp thingees. A real socket that I can plug an ordinary 5mm LED into and it works without further ado.

NOON
           Did I promise some info on silver? Yes, I did. Okay, we got some. Here is a small percentage, but consider this a find. Why? Because for all the flak I took advising people what not to buy, funny how the single one ounce bullion bars have all but disappeared. I said don’t buy coins. That is just a sucker game to get you to pay more for the same thing. I said don’t buy large bars. They are conspicuous, hard to carry, and nobody can make change. Making change is important, and also, you generally have to cash in the whole bar when you may only need some.

           First thing, to find these bars in quantity, you pretty much have to know somebody. I do. And the bar charge has gone up “50%”, say the sellers. That means a dollar per ounce, or $3 and that applies whether you buy or sell. Fortunately, I established a rapport with my supplier going back years and can buy at a significant discount. Now, to demonstrate that I am speculating, not investing, let’s look at a sample transaction.
           Spot silver, the price you pay when the seller clicks on his link. It is usually 20 to 30 cents higher (per ounce) than what you find on Kitco. Let’s pretend it is $15 plus $3 bar charge, makes the landed cost of each ounce $18. And let’s suppose the price goes up to $25 next month. When you go to sell, that’s $25 minus $3, you get $22 per ounce. $22 - $18 = $4. Unless you are dealing in hundreds of ounces, that’s hardly worth the two trips you made to the coin store.
           Are you beginning to see my point about the cost of investing? I talked about this to the staff at the coin store and they said I’m the first person who has ever mentioned it, much less quantified much of the process. Without really planning it out, I can tell you a realistic figure of how much each investment “costs”.
           They say if I print up a brochure, they’d like to advise some of their customers about this aspect of non-earned income. From my point of view, brochures take time to produce and I’m merely putting into numbers the old saw that it takes money to make money. I shocked a few people last time by pointing out it cost me $2.30 to save $1.00. Folks, cash is one of the most expensive commodities to save.
           It has to be stored, protected, repeatedly counted, kept secret (but known to at least one outside party in case you die), it loses value if kept too long, and transporting it or spending it in large quantities has become risky business.
           I say my cost of $2.30 is actually very efficient. I challenge anyone to do better. But it must be consistently better, long-term, and I don’t really expect to hear anything back from those who try it. Because I’m very right about the true cost.

NIGHT
           Um, yes, I heard Trump in Keene. Yes, I know he practically quoted this blog from three weeks. No, I can’t prove a thing, but you know how I feel about coincidence. His speeches are getting much smoother, so he is reacting to some kind of outside influence. For all I know, his neighbor might be telling him tales from the trailer court, you never know. About the only thing consistent is the 21 day delay (between this blog and the news). That, I cannot explain. I can confirm, this is what the desk of a thinking man looks like. That much I know.

           But I can tell you the guy is in. Look at those audiences, those crowds. That’s what used to be middle-class America. That’s what they look like. And Trump said “political bullshit”, “hell”, and “shit” in the same speech. That would be political suicide for any of the candy-asses running against him. They are not running for president, they are running against Trump.
           What stood out? That he is going to send the 200,000 man Syrian army, oops, pardon me, “refugees” back to Syria if they (not we, there are very few Americans who want these potential terrorists into our country) let them in and when he gets elected. Right there, he will get elected. Yes, he pointed out they are mostly men of military age. Now, where did he get that observation from in those exact words? Beats me. But back they go as he pointed out that Eisenhower kicked out a million. See addendum.
           It can be done. As Trump says, “We gotta do it.” He’s right.

           Last, Trumps referral to Eisenhower kicking out a million (illegal Mexicans) is something he should have followed up on. (It was 1.3 million, the oft-quoted figure of 13 million is erroneous.) Trump was talking about Operation Wetback. Truman deported two million Mexicans, and before that Hoover kicked out 82,400. It should be noted that Eisenhower’s move only arrested 80,000. The rest left voluntarily when they saw they were going to be rounded up. That’s a hint, Donald.
           The latest published figures ICE say it costs $12,500 to deport each one. Read the link. Are they deporting them on private jets? The best comments say load them on a bus and send the bill to the Mexican government. Or make the fine for employing an illegal the same amount.
           Last I heard, a one-way bus ticket Houston to Brownsville was $30. Or confiscate their assets gained through illegal work, auction it, and send them the difference, if any. Be harsh, because we are up against Libroids who say since we can’t control the border, it should be left open. They actually think like that.
           For further reading, Wiki has a list of famous people who have been deported.

ADDENDUM
           The premise of Trump getting America back on track has historical precedent. While trade barriers make for poorer international relations, the lack of barriers has ruined every economy that tried them. With strong barriers, there is incentive for companies to base manufacturing plants here. Trump will undoubtedly step on exporters of technology, which is also a correct move. While it makes American goods more expensive overseas, if we are the only country who has the technology to build them, the world essentially has to pay or do without.

           I’m not so keen on his strong military stance, he may be doing that to garner votes. The military is already too strong for its own good. Trump points out the weakness and incompetence at the White House, but is far more guarded about the same thing in the military. Instead he quotes what Patton or McArthur would “not have done”. But anybody like me gets the message. I could not name you one American general alive today. They don’t count, see. They are not winning any wars.
           Trump is more than wise about running the country as a business. He’s also right about the tax code. What is the idiotic theory behind taxing a man who makes less than $20,000 a year? It costs mor to collect it than he pays out. I’m not keen on the mortgage interest deduction. That’s kind of freebie to people who borrow, which is fundamentally wrong. One should not encourage borrowing.

           To put things into perspective, Trump’s model is what you’d learn in first or second year economics. This is good, because that’s about where the real world ends. Past that, you get into rarified realms that very few small businesses even bother to care about. Two examples are the corporate inversion tax and corporate tax deferrals. If Trump cancels both those laws, he wins. If you are not into economics, I’ll explain.
           Get rid of those two incentives, and the reverse happens. Corporations are motivated to bring the money back and get no tax cut for leaving it over there until later. Double whammy. It’s basic economics, and Trump has the common sense to know that is the domain where small businesses operate.
           It was a great—and much more proficient—speech. He’s prudently avoiding the pitfall of getting into policy details. That’s precisely what the nonsense establishment wants so they can bog things down endlessly. So Trump says he likes to not say. People can relate to that but the other candidates feed them a steady diet of never-ending rhetoric. I prefer it Trump keeps mum on how he will get things done. If nothing else, it will ensure supporters of the status quo will have no time to cook up opposition. There's the old adage that it is easier to get forgiveness than permission.

           It might be time to fear what will happen if Trump DOESN’T get elected. The country is at the breaking point. If one more candy-ass gets in, we are doomed.


Last Laugh


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